Complex Event Analysis - Report

Key Focus

  • This phenomenon, known as antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), has been a problem with experimental vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) - which is caused by a virus related to Sars-CoV-2 - and it will need to be ruled out by rigorous testing of vaccines against Covid-19.
    If ADE were to turn out to be a problem with a vaccine after it had been approved, in a country with poor safety reporting, years might pass before the full human cost came to light
  • He points out that companies have been fleeing the vaccine field in recent decades, because the profit margin on most vaccines is so thin. "The fact that we now have more companies getting into the vaccine business because of Covid-19 is a tremendously positive aspect of this pandemic," he says.
    But the changing economics of vaccine development have thrown up new ethical dilemmas
  • Momentum supporting factors

  • (safety,vaccine)
  • Challenge supporting factors

  • (covid-19,vaccines)
  • (vaccine,vaccines)
  • (covid-19,vaccine,vaccines)
  • (covid-19,presidential)
  • (covid-19,presidential,vaccine)
  • (presidential,vaccine)
  • (covid-19,virus)
  • (vaccines,virus)
  • (safety,virus)
  • (covid-19,vaccine,virus)
  • Work-in-progress supporting factors

  • (covid-19,profit,vaccine)
  • (covid-19,vaccine,vaccines)
  • (covid-19,profit)
  • (race,vaccine)
  • (profit,vaccine)
  • (profit,vaccines)
  • (covid-19,edt)
  • (edt,vaccine)
  • (covid-19,worldwide)
  • (covid-19,vaccine,worldwide)
  • Complex Event Time Series Summary - REPORT


    Time PeriodChallengeMomentumWIP
    Report36.14 1.20 62.65

    High Level Abstraction (HLA) combined

    High Level Abstraction (HLA)Report
    (1) (covid-19,vaccine,vaccines)100.00
    (2) (covid-19,profit,vaccine)84.62
    (3) (vaccine,vaccines)77.33
    (4) (covid-19,vaccines)61.94
    (5) (covid-19,profit)44.13
    (6) (race,vaccine)43.72
    (7) (profit,vaccine)40.89
    (8) (profit,vaccines)40.49
    (9) (covid-19,presidential)40.08
    (10) (political,vaccine)38.87
    (11) (covid-19,presidential,vaccine)38.87
    (12) (presidential,vaccine)38.06
    (13) (covid-19,virus)38.06
    (14) (covid-19,edt)37.65
    (15) (edt,vaccine)36.44
    (16) (covid-19,worldwide)36.03
    (17) (covid-19,vaccine,worldwide)34.01
    (18) (vaccines,virus)32.39
    (19) (covid-19,well-honed)32.39
    (20) (covid-19,vaccine,well-honed)30.77
    (21) (safety,virus)28.34
    (22) (covid-19,vaccine,virus)27.13
    (23) (covid-19,university)23.89
    (24) (countries,vaccine)23.89
    (25) (safety,university)23.08
    (26) (covid-19,university,vaccine)22.27
    (27) (covid-19,sydney)21.86
    (28) (risk,vaccine)21.46
    (29) (safety,sydney)21.05
    (30) (covid-19,sydney,vaccine)20.24
    (31) (covid-19,sun)19.84
    (32) (covid-19,sun,vaccine)18.62
    (33) (covid-19,spinney)18.22
    (34) (covid-19,spinney,vaccine)17.00
    (35) (chinese,vaccines)14.98
    (36) (race,vaccines)13.77
    (37) (science,vaccine)11.34
    (38) (safety,vaccine)10.93
    (39) (offit,vaccine)10.12
    (40) (global,vaccine)9.72
    (41) (vaccines,waking)6.88
    (42) (spectre,vaccines)6.48
    (43) (scientists,vaccines)6.07
    (44) (safety,sars-cov-2)5.67
    (45) (sars-cov-2,vaccines)5.26
    (46) (covid-19,safety)5.26
    (47) (safety,vaccines)4.86
    (48) (positive,vaccines)4.45
    (49) (safety,world_health_organization)2.02
    (50) (ministry,safety)1.62
    (51) (immune,safety)1.21
    (52) (health,safety)0.81
    (53) (enhancement,safety)0.40

    Complex Event Analysis - REPORT

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    Supporting narratives:

    • momentum (Read more)
      • Covid-19 outbreaks are now growing in parts of that continent, meaning it is potentially a good place to test the ability of a putative vaccine to protect people against infection, but safety surveillance can be patchy there. "Often where you have most cases of an infectious disease, the infrastructure for surveillance isn't as good," says Kampmann.
        When Salzberg rescinded his suggestion to roll out a vaccine before trials had been completed, ADE was one of the reasons
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (safety,vaccine)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • This phenomenon, known as antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), has been a problem with experimental vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) - which is caused by a virus related to Sars-CoV-2 - and it will need to be ruled out by rigorous testing of vaccines against Covid-19.
        If ADE were to turn out to be a problem with a vaccine after it had been approved, in a country with poor safety reporting, years might pass before the full human cost came to light
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (enhancement,safety)
        • (covid-19,safety)
        • (covid-19,vaccines)
        • (vaccines,virus)
        • (safety,sars-cov-2)
        • (covid-19,vaccine,vaccines)
        • (sars-cov-2,vaccines)
        • (safety,virus)
        • (covid-19,vaccine,virus)
        • (covid-19,virus)
        • (vaccine,vaccines)
        • (safety,vaccine)
        • Inferred entity relationships (12)
        • (covid-19,vaccine,virus) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,worldwide) [inferred]
        • (vaccine,virus) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,well-honed) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,wuhan) [inferred]
        • (vaccine,virus,worldwide) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,vaccines) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,virus,workers) [inferred]
        • (vaccine,vaccines,white_house) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine) [inferred]
        • (vaccine,vaccines) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,zaks) [inferred]

    • challenge (Read more)
      • Two days before his Republican party's national convention began last week, president Donald Trump accused the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) of dragging its feet, delaying approval of any experimental vaccine until after November's presidential elections. When the FDA then gave "emergency use" authorisation for blood plasma treatments for Covid-19 patients before such treatments had shown any clear benefit in clinical trials, fears grew that it would do the same for a vaccine candidate before that candidate had been put fully through its paces - just to suit the presidential agenda
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (covid-19,presidential)
        • (covid-19,presidential,vaccine)
        • (presidential,vaccine)
        • Inferred entity relationships (3)
        • (covid-19,presidential) [inferred]
        • (presidential,vaccine) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,presidential,vaccine) [inferred]

    • challenge (Read more)
      • With accusations that the Russians and Chinese hacked research groups in other countries, biotech executives criticised for cashing in on their own, as yet unapproved vaccines, and Russia approving a vaccine that is still in clinical trials, the quest for a vaccine seems to have turned sour.
        Political pressure has been mounting for scientists to deliver an economy-saving result, and reports of corner-cutting emerge daily
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (countries,vaccine)
        • (vaccine,vaccines)
        • (chinese,vaccines)
        • Inferred entity relationships (1)
        • (vaccine,vaccines,white_house) [inferred]

    • challenge (Read more)
      • "In keeping with the longstanding pattern of political behaviour during pandemics," wrote global health expert David P Fidler of the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC, in Science on 14 August, "vaccines will eventually reach most populations, but only after powerful countries have protected themselves."
        Another potential repercussion is that, having lost faith in science and institutions, more people will choose not to take a vaccine once one becomes available - reducing the protection of the population as a whole if herd immunity cannot be achieved
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (countries,vaccine)
        • (political,vaccine)
        • (science,vaccine)
        • (global,vaccine)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • On 11 January, only 10 days after reporting a new respiratory disease, the Chinese published the genome sequence of the virus that causes it. Researchers around the world set to work building vaccines against Covid-19, as the disease became known, and the first candidate entered human trials on 16 March; it was joined, as the months passed, by dozens of others.
        Scientists were jubilant, and they had every right to be
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (covid-19,vaccines)
        • (vaccines,virus)
        • (covid-19,virus)
        • (chinese,vaccines)
        • Inferred entity relationships (1)
        • (covid-19,virus,workers) [inferred]

    • challenge (Read more)
      • With accusations that the Russians and Chinese hacked research groups in other countries, biotech executives criticised for cashing in on their own, as yet unapproved vaccines, and Russia approving a vaccine that is still in clinical trials, the quest for a vaccine seems to have turned sour.
        Political pressure has been mounting for scientists to deliver an economy-saving result, and reports of corner-cutting emerge daily.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (scientists,vaccines)

    • challenge (Read more)
      • This phenomenon, known as antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), has been a problem with experimental vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) - which is caused by a virus related to Sars-CoV-2 - and it will need to be ruled out by rigorous testing of vaccines against Covid-19.
        If ADE were to turn out to be a problem with a vaccine after it had been approved, in a country with poor safety reporting, years might pass before the full human cost came to light.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (safety,vaccines)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • He points out that companies have been fleeing the vaccine field in recent decades, because the profit margin on most vaccines is so thin. "The fact that we now have more companies getting into the vaccine business because of Covid-19 is a tremendously positive aspect of this pandemic," he says.
        But the changing economics of vaccine development have thrown up new ethical dilemmas
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (covid-19,profit,vaccine)
        • (covid-19,vaccine,vaccines)
        • (profit,vaccines)
        • Inferred entity relationships (10)
        • (covid-19,profit) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,virus) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,worldwide) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,well-honed) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,wuhan) [inferred]
        • (vaccine,vaccines,white_house) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine) [inferred]
        • (profit,vaccine) [inferred]
        • (vaccine,vaccines) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,zaks) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • How the race for a Covid-19 vaccine is getting dirty
        The Observer
        Vaccines and immunisation
        Laura Spinney
        Sun 30 Aug 2020 02.52 EDT
        Last modified on Sun 30 Aug 2020 14.55 EDT
        Scientists worldwide are working against the clock to find a viable coronavirus vaccine - but are corners being cut for the sake of political gain and profit.
        To begin with, it felt like a sleek performance from a well-honed relay team.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (covid-19,profit)
        • (covid-19,well-honed)
        • (covid-19,profit,vaccine)
        • (profit,vaccine)
        • (covid-19,vaccine,well-honed)
        • Inferred entity relationships (9)
        • (covid-19,profit) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,virus) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,worldwide) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,wuhan) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,profit,vaccine) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine) [inferred]
        • (profit,vaccine) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,vaccines) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,zaks) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • How the race for a Covid-19 vaccine is getting dirty
        The Observer
        Vaccines and immunisation
        Laura Spinney
        Sun 30 Aug 2020 02.52 EDT
        Last modified on Sun 30 Aug 2020 14.55 EDT
        Scientists worldwide are working against the clock to find a viable coronavirus vaccine - but are corners being cut for the sake of political gain and profit.
        To begin with, it felt like a sleek performance from a well-honed relay team
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (covid-19,sun,vaccine)
        • (covid-19,spinney,vaccine)
        • (edt,vaccine)
        • (political,vaccine)
        • (covid-19,edt)
        • (covid-19,spinney)
        • (covid-19,sun)
        • (covid-19,vaccine,worldwide)
        • (covid-19,worldwide)
        • (race,vaccine)
        • Inferred entity relationships (13)
        • (covid-19,spinney) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,sun,vaccine) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,virus) [inferred]
        • (vaccine,worldwide) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,well-honed) [inferred]
        • (edt,vaccine) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,wuhan) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,spinney,vaccine) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,vaccines) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,vaccine,zaks) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,sun) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,edt) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • (Under-reporting of side effects was still a major problem in Russia in 2017.)
        Philosopher and bioethicist Angus Dawson, who works at the University of Sydney, says he understands the pressure to accelerate Covid-19 vaccine testing, given the numbers of people globally who are susceptible to severe or lethal forms of the disease
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (covid-19,university)
        • (covid-19,sydney)
        • (safety,sydney)
        • (covid-19,sydney,vaccine)
        • (covid-19,safety)
        • (covid-19,university,vaccine)
        • (safety,vaccine)
        • (safety,university)
        • Inferred entity relationships (4)
        • (covid-19,university) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,university,vaccine) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,sydney,vaccine) [inferred]
        • (covid-19,sydney) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • A few weeks ago Cepi published the results of a survey suggesting that the world had the manufacturing capacity to produce the 2bn doses considered necessary to protect the most vulnerable by the end of 2021 - without borrowing capacity from other lifesaving vaccines - but not to produce enough doses to protect everyone by the same deadline. "People are waking up to the fact that vaccines will not be there for all," Kampmann says.
        The spectre arises of nations already engaged in a vaccine "space race" trying to corner supplies for their own populations
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (vaccines,waking)
        • (vaccine,vaccines)
        • Inferred entity relationships (1)
        • (vaccine,vaccines,white_house) [inferred]

    • WIP (Read more)
      • "Approval of a vaccine that is harmful or isn't effective could be leveraged by political forces that already propagate vaccine fears," he warned.
        Even if most vaccine research groups aren't rushing, says Paul Offit, head of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, the language used to describe the search for a vaccine - the US government's naming of its vaccine funding programme Operation "Warp Speed", Russia's evocation of the cold war space race with its "Sputnik V" vaccine, even the expression "vaccine race" - might imply otherwise
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (race,vaccine)
        • (political,vaccine)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • "People are waking up to the fact that vaccines will not be there for all," Kampmann says.
        The spectre arises of nations already engaged in a vaccine "space race" trying to corner supplies for their own populations.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (race,vaccines)
        • (race,vaccine)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • In the third phase, which also includes controls, the vaccine is typically administered to tens of thousands of people who are followed over many months, usually in a place where the risk of infection is high.
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (risk,vaccine)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • "We don't have a vaccine for any coronavirus, so why do people assume this is going to be straightforward." Dawson asks.
        One potential risk with some kinds of vaccine, for example, is that they can cause the recipient to experience a worse bout of the disease if that person becomes infected naturally later on
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (risk,vaccine)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • (Herd immunity is when enough people are vaccinated that they block the disease's spread, so that even the unvaccinated are protected.) Alarming surveys have suggested that up to a third of Americans and 16% of Britons would refuse a Covid-19 vaccine, for example. Offit warns that such surveys should be treated with caution, however, while the vaccine remains theoretical
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (offit,vaccine)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • "People are waking up to the fact that vaccines will not be there for all," Kampmann says.
        The spectre arises of nations already engaged in a vaccine "space race" trying to corner supplies for their own populations
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (spectre,vaccines)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • "The fact that we now have more companies getting into the vaccine business because of Covid-19 is a tremendously positive aspect of this pandemic," he says.
        But the changing economics of vaccine development have thrown up new ethical dilemmas
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (positive,vaccines)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • And this in a country that, at least until five years ago, had by its own health ministry's admission, standards of drug safety surveillance that were lower than those recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). (Under-reporting of side effects was still a major problem in Russia in 2017.)
        Philosopher and bioethicist Angus Dawson, who works at the University of Sydney, says he understands the pressure to accelerate Covid-19 vaccine testing, given the numbers of people globally who are susceptible to severe or lethal forms of the disease
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (safety,world_health_organization)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • And this in a country that, at least until five years ago, had by its own health ministry's admission, standards of drug safety surveillance that were lower than those recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO)
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (health,safety)
        • (ministry,safety)

    • WIP (Read more)
      • In the first, a small group of healthy people receives the vaccine to see if it is safe - that is, that it causes no serious side effects. Phase 2 continues to test safety but mainly tests the vaccine's ability to elicit an immune response. It does this in a few hundred people, some of whom act as controls because they receive a placebo or different vaccine
      • High Level Abstractions:
        • (immune,safety)

    Target rule match count: 61.0 Challenge: 0.18 Momentum: 0.01 WIP: 0.31